My previous EUR/USD signal last Thursday were not triggered.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken before 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade Idea
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0195, $1.0220, $1.0240, or $1.0269.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Idea
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0073.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
In my last analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair on 11th August, I noted that we were seeing the price sell off continuously following the spike up to the $1.0350 area.
I thought that both the nearest support levels at $1.0250 and $1.0202, as well as the nearest support level at $1.0294, looked firm and likely to hold at least for a while when next reached.
This call was not useful during the day, but the next morning when $1.0294 was first reached, a long scalp could have produced a few pips of profit.
The technical picture now is more bearish, as we have seen the price break down and get established below the ascending trend line, which was formerly supportive, shown within the price chart below. This trend line has now become resistant, and it is confluent with a clear level of resistance at $1.0195, which is also quite confluent with the round number at $1.0200.
The best trade which might set up here today will likely be a short trade from a bearish reversal off $1.0195 – if the rejection also touches the $1.0200, that will be even better.
The price has plenty of room to fall before reaching any key support levels, but it is likely we will still see strong support the closer we get to the parity level, which again begins to come into view now.
Concerning the USD, there will be a release of Retail Sales data at 1:30pm London time, followed by the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 7pm. There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding the EUR.
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