The US dollar rallied ever so slightly during thin trading on Monday, as it was Independence Day in the United States. The more exotic currency pairs like the US dollar/Indian rupee would of course be very quiet. That being said, the candlestick for the day looked just like the ones before it, like perhaps the Bank of India is fighting the depreciation of its own currency. That’s probably true to a point, although the DOI has a long history of eventually letting the market go its own way, and seemingly find itself more concerned with the rate of change than anything else.
You can see that until a couple of days ago, the US dollar was shooting straight up against the rupee, reaching the ₹79 level. It appears this is an area that the BOI may defend, but eventually they will let the market go higher. The candlesticks over the last couple of days suggest that we could see a bit of a pullback, but quite frankly, in a massive uptrend like this it makes sense that we would see that happen. After all, some people are going to need to take profit after a huge move higher, and yet others will be cautious about paying for this pair all the way up in this area.
The 50-day EMA sits just below the 78 level, and is rising quite steadily. Because of this, I do think that the downside is going to be somewhat limited, unless the Federal Reserve does something to shock the markets. As things stand right now, the Federal Reserve is by far the most hawkish major central bank in the world. In fact, it could cause the US dollar to be a bit of a wrecking ball against almost everything else, especially emerging market currencies such as this one.
Another thing to consider is that if we do end up entering a global recession, economies like India will bear the brunt of this, as we continue to see a lack of international trade. Beyond that, some countries such as India will have to worry about wheat over the next several months, not exactly a positive sign for the economy going forward. That being said, it should be noted that the Russians have allowed grain to be exported from Ukraine recently. Buying on the dips will more likely than not be the best way forward.
