The WTI Crude Oil markets try to rally during the session on Friday, but as you can see gave back almost all of the gains, especially as we hit the $94.00 handle. This area obviously is a bit of resistance, plus it is in the middle of a larger consolidation area that we had been in previously, so of course there are going to be a large amount of orders in that area. That of course causes friction, which of course brings the market to a standstill at times.
That being the case, look into the scandal it does suggest that we are going to go lower, but I am a bit hesitant to start shorting based upon the shooting star. The reason of course is that the larger term charts that I have been looking at suggests that there is a lot of noise between here and $90. Because of that, I find that it's probably easier to simply avoid that kind of mass and treat easier markets that are abundant out there at the moment.
Nonfarm payroll numbers.
The nonfarm payroll numbers come out this Friday, and they will have a drastic effect on this market. Strong nonfarm payroll numbers out of the United States will suggest that the Federal Reserve can taper quicker than anticipated, and that should drive the value the US dollar higher. If we have that happen, the value of oil should drop. However, there does come a point in time where the effect of a stronger US economy actually drives up the price of oil, but my feeling is that the initial reaction will be a run to the US dollar, and out of commodities in general.
As jobs numbers and economic indicators on the United States improve, you can expect a full turnaround in the oil markets, but expect a lot of noise between now and then. Quite frankly, I do expect to see the $90 level bring in a lot of “value investors”, so I would anticipate a lot of action down near that area.
