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FXE (Euro) Signal - Jan. 14, 2013


When speaking in London this past July, ECB President Mario Draghi stated in no uncertain terms that the and the bank were prepared to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro, adding "Believe me, it will be enough" for good measure.

Then last week Draghi revealed a unanimous decision to leave lending rates unchanged at 0.75 percent, leading the euro to spike against the dollar in the wake of the decision after a rate cut as purportedly widely discussed by the Governing Council.

The Financial Times reported over the weekend Eurozone finance ministers had drafted a proposal for tightened European Stability Mechanism benefits, requiring beneficiaries to invest alongside the ESM or provide a direct guarantee against losses. New data for December also showed Spanish bank's ECB dependence had declined by nearly 10% to 313.11b euro (from 340.84b). Gross borrowing was down to 357.29b from the August peak of 411.65b.

While all this points to improved fundamentals, Bernanke's speech this afternoon is poised to make an impact by strengthening the dollar to create further selling pressure or conversely strengthening the recent rally.

My trade:

132.50 FXE Weekly Straddle

Risk: $1.09
Reward: Theoretically unlimited on the upside
Downside B/E: $131.41
Upside B/E: $133.59

Andrew Keene
About Andrew Keene
Andrew Keene spent 10 years as an independent equity options trader on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange, during which he spent the majority of his time as a market-maker for over 125 stocks. Andrew currently trades futures, currencies and commodities. When he's not trading, Andrew appears on top business television shows including CNBC's Squawk on the Street, Street Smart on Bloomberg TV and First Business, a show that is syndicated across the United States. Andrew graduated from the University of Illinois with a degree in Finance with a concentration in Accountancy.

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