Hawkish ECB

Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank, spoke a while ago at an ECB Forum in Portugal.

He surprised the market with his words, being more hardline that had been expected concerning the Bank’s monetary policies, and this caused the Euro to rise by about 0.80% against the U.S. Dollar and by less than half of that against the Japanese Yen. These were not very large movements by any means, but they seem to have potential to follow through, particularly against the U.S. Dollar, as the EUR/USD approaches its long-term high price of 1.1296.

What did Mr. Draghi say? Not much, as is typical of the banking era which we live in today, where markets get excited about threats central bankers make rather than threats they carry out! His words have been taken to mean that the asset purchase/QE/money printing program has its end in sight. The most interesting words he said, however, were that “deflationary forces have been replaced by inflationary ones”, and this does logically indicate a tightening of monetary policy going forward rather than a loosening. The most obvious and necessary way to effect such a change will be to begin to bring “quantitative easing” to an end. Mario Draghi

Mr. Draghi was also generally optimistic about Eurozone growth, even going as far to say it is above trend.

The question is whether this boost to the Euro will really take the currency anywhere new in the short to medium term. Although the price action still looks bullish a few hours later, I won’t be surprised if the long-term EUR/USD high at 1.1296 holds again, as it is the start of a very long-term resistant area which has capped the price for more than two years. However, this might depend on whether the Chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen, who will be speaking later today, says anything which can be taken as more dovish than expected on the U.S. Dollar. If she does, that will probably cause a pop above 1.1300.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.