Into the Final Day


I would like to say voting takes place tomorrow (Tuesday) in the U.S. Presidential Election, but I must say that voting concludes tomorrow, as many states allow for early voting, and something like 42 million electors have already cast their ballots.

As tomorrow is the final chance I will get to write something about the election before the results become clear, I didn’t want to write about it today as well, but there is nothing else going on so I have little choice!

The big news as at the time of writing is that the FBI has surprisingly announced that the investigation into Clinton is over. It seems obvious that this can only help her in the remaining voting, but perhaps it will not make much difference.

The polls are close, with several states too close to call. If Trump wins them all, he will just about scrape home, but if he loses just one of them, he is a near-certain loser.

Despite the apparent closeness of the polls, there are several prominent forecasters giving Clinton a chance of winning greater than 90%. Nate Silver has been taken to task for giving her, at the time of writing, only a 64% chance of victory. Online gambling sites are giving her, on average, an 82% chance of winning.

It should be remembered that just before polling day during the last election in 2012, polls were showing a dead heat between the two major candidates, but when the votes were counted the Democrat won a comfortable victory. It is this factor, plus Clinton’s superior resources and organization, that are putting her beyond where the polls themselves suggest she might be.

I have consistently predicted a Clinton victory and I stick by that.

The early voting in the swing state of Nevada apparently went very heavily in Clinton’s favor. A few hours ago, Nate Silver moved Nevada from Trump to Clinton, but in recent minutes has moved it back to Trump.

Silver’s electoral map currently shows the election being tipped by only the state of New Hampshire, in Clinton’s favor.

Clinton V Trump

Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. He is certified in Fund Management and Investment Management by the U.K. Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy.