At the start of last week, I wrote about how as it is becoming increasingly certain that Clinton is going to win the election, there is going to be a resultant boom in the USD, and questioned the point of waiting until after the actual result. I don’t think there has been a U.S. Presidential election in as little doubt since 1996. I was predicting that over the coming week, the U.S. Dollar would start to move.
Although the overall move was small in percentage terms, it was a bullish week for the U.S. Dollar. There are a few bullish factors that stand out.
Technically, the U.S. Dollar index made a “golden cross” this week. This is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and is a very widely followed technical bullish signal.
The U.S. Dollar has made new key highs against the Euro and Canadian Dollars, and is looking strong everywhere with the possible exception, amongst the majors, of the Japanese Yen:
It is true that recent data releases have not been so spectacular. The next real test coming from any scheduled fundamental news concerning the U.S. Dollar will arrive on Thursday, with the release of Core Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims.
The only thing that might spoil the party would be an unexpected rash of polls showing Trump closing the gap. This could roil the markets. In the unlikely event that this does happen, I would just see it as a good buying opportunity. I have no doubt that Clinton will win.