Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6650.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6500.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6610.
The AUD/USD exchange rate remained under pressure as traders assessed the recent actions by the Federal Reserve and Australia’s central bank. The pair was trading at 0.6580 on Thursday, down from this week’s high of 0.6650.
Fed and RBA decisions
The AUD/USD pair has been in the spotlight after the recent actions by the Federal Reserve and the RBA. In its decision last week, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%. It also hinted that it will cut rates later this year if inflation continues falling.
The Federal Reserve noted that inflation has remained stubbornly high above its 2% target while the economic growth is slowing. Recent data showed that the economy expanded by just 1.6% in Q1, a sharp reversal from Q4’s 3.2%. Economists expect the Fed to start cutting rates in Q4 of this year.
The Reserve Bank of Australia also left interest rates unchanged at 4.35% as it continued focusing on the country’s inflation, which has remained higher than expected. Analysts at several banks expect it to cut rates later this year. On the other hand, some of them believe that it will even hike rates later this year.
There will be no major economic data from Australia and the US on Thursday. The only report to watch from the US will be the initial and continuing jobless claims numbers. Economists polled by Reuters expect the report to reveal that the initial claims rose by 212k last week from the previous 208k.
Continuing claims are expected to come in at 1.79 million, higher than the prior week’s 1.7k. While these are important numbers, their impact on the AUD/USD technical analysis will be limited.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The Australian dollar peaked at 0.6650 last week as the US dollar weakened after April’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. That was a crucial price since it failed to move above that level on March 8th and April 9th. It was also the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern.
It pulled back this week after the RBA interest rate decision and has found a support at 50-period moving average. It is also trading between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Therefore, the pair will likely bounce back as buyers target last Friday’s high of 0.6650. On the flip side, a drop below the support at 0.6540 will provide more downside.
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