- The US dollar shot higher during the trading session on Tuesday, breaking above the 17 MXN level, and breaking well above the 50-Day EMA.
- While this is a very bullish turn of events, a lot of what we are seeing comes out of the bond markets more than anything else.
- As interest rates in America continue to rally, it suggests that perhaps the room be more upward pressure on the greenback. However, we are approaching a very significant level to pay attention to.
Technical Analysis
The region that the market is currently trading is an area that previously had been significant support, and therefore “market memory” could come into the picture to offer resistance. Furthermore, we have the 200-Day EMA above offering significant technical resistance, so I think it will be interesting to see whether or not we can continue to go higher. In the short term, I suspect that you will see exhaustion come into the market and it could be a nice selling opportunity.
If we were to take out the 17.44 MXN level above, then it’s likely that this market will start to change the overall trend, but right now I think it is more likely than not going to run into a bit of trouble. Keep in mind that the Mexican interest rate is almost 12%, so you have to pay to buy the USD/MXN market. I suspect at this point in time we more or less have a scenario where the move that we have been making is more or less a short covering situation than anything else.
However, keep in mind that the 16 MXN level underneath continues to be a major area on longer-term charts, therefore it makes quite a bit of sense that we would see the area offer support, although we did bounce from just above there. In general, I like the idea of waiting to see what happens in this overall vicinity, because I think it’s very likely that the next move could be a big one that lasts for some time. Keep in mind that the Mexican peso is an emerging market currency, so the volatility does tend to get out of control at times.
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