Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 60,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 67,200.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 65,000 and a take-profit at 68,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 61,000.
Bitcoin pulled back in the overnight session as the recent recovery faded. The BTC/USD pair has struggled to move above the crucial resistance level at 67,238 as investors watch macro factors and its on-chain metrics.
Post-halving calm continues
Bitcoin is in a state it has not been at in the past few months. It initially jumped sharply ahead of the spot Bitcoin ETF approval, which happened in January. These ETFs have lived to their hype after they have led to over $60 billion in inflows.
After the ETF approval, Bitcoin continued rallying in anticipation of the halving event, which reduces the block rewards offered to miners. Historically, Bitcoin has always done well before halving.
Now, the coin has moved into a no man's land since there is no major catalyst that will push it higher. As such, traders will continue to watch its on-chain metrics and the performance of the spot ETFs.
They are also focusing on other external factors like corporate earnings, geopolitics, and the next actions of the Federal Reserve.
That explains why the next two days will be important for the price of Bitcoin since the US will release important economic numbers. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the first quarter GDP estimate that is expected to show that the economy expanded by 2.5%.
After this, the US will release the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation report on Friday. This is an important number since it is the Fed’s favorite inflation number. Economists expect the figure to show that the headline and core PCE figure rose to 2.6% in March.
A stronger PCE figure will point to a hawkish Federal Reserve. As such, the bank could signal that it will hike rates again later this year. It could also hint that the current restrictive policy will continue. Bitcoin tends to underperform when the Fed is hawkish.
BTC/USD technical analysis
Bitcoin price has been in a slow bullish trend in the past few days but struggled to move above the crucial resistance point at $67,238. It has now slipped and crossed the crucial 50-period moving average.
The BTC/USD pair has pointed downwards while the Bull Bear Power indicator has moved below the neutral level. The pair has also moved below the descending trendline that connects the highest swings since March 14th.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling, with the next point to watch being the psychological point at 60,000.
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