Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 73,500.
- Add a stop-loss at 69,500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 70,500 and a take-profit at 69,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 72,000.
Bitcoin price remained in a tight range on Monday morning as the countdown to the halving event continued. The BTC/USD pair remained above the psychological point of 70,000, where it has been stuck at in the past two weeks.
Bitcoin halving countdown
Bitcoin had a mixed performance in March. It initially soared to a record high of $73,900 and then crashed hard to $60,788 as outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) intensified. Many GBTC holders have sold their assets and moved them to other funds.
For example, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has added over $17 billion in assets while the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF has added over $6.5 billion in assets. In all, Bitcoin ETFs have over $50 billion in total assets, which is a remarkable feat since the SEC approved eleven funds in January.
The biggest Bitcoin news of this month will be the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which is expected to happen on April 24th. This halving will happen when the block height rises from the current 837,125 to 840,000. When it happens, the block reward will move from the current 6.25 to 3.125.
Bitcoin tends to see more activity ahead of the halving event. In most cases, it tends to rise towards the event. This halving will be important because it is happening at a time when Bitcoin’s supply in exchanges has continued tumbling in the past few months. It has crashed to 1.77 million, down from the YTD high of 1.9 million.
It will also happen at a time when demand from investors is rising. Many institutional investors have embraced Bitcoin, which has outperformed most stocks in the past fifteen years. As such, they believe that it is an integral part of a balanced portfolio.
BTC/USD forecast
The BTC/USD pair has remained above the psychological level of 70,000 in the past few days. On the 4H chart, the pair has formed a small ascending triangle pattern, which is a bullish sign. Bitcoin has also remained slightly above the 50-period moving average, another positive sign.
However, the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) has drifted downwards and is nearing the neutral point at zero. Therefore, the pair will likely have a bullish breakout as buyers target the key point at 73,900, its highest point in March.
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