Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6485.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6545.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 0.6520 and a take-profit at 0.6550.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6450.
The AUD/USD was little changed on Monday as Australia’s markets remained shut for the Easter holiday. It also reacted mildly to the encouraging Chinese economic numbers, which showed that the country was making a slow comeback. It was trading at 0.6515, a few pips above last week’s low of 0.6485.
China’s economy is recovering
The AUD/USD pair wavered after a report by China’s statistics agency showed that the country was making a slow recovery. In a report, the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that the manufacturing PMI rose from 49.1 in February to 50.8 in March. This increase was better than the median estimate of 50.1.
The non-manufacturing PMI figure also continued rising. It rose from 51.4 to 53, also higher than the expected 51.3. The bureau noted that the country’s economy was being supported by vehicle exports. Nonetheless, the agency warned that the country’s companies were seeing weak international demand.
China’s economic activity is notable because of the volume of goods that Australia sells to the country. Iron ore, Australia’s biggest export has been in a strong bearish trend. Its price has tumbled to $109, down from $140 in January.
Looking ahead, the ISM will publish the US manufacturing PMI report on Monday. Economists see the figure coming in at 52.8, higher than February’s 52.2. While this report is important, its impact on the AUD/USD pair will be muted.
The other crucial report will come out on Tuesday when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will publish minutes of its last meeting. The bank left interest rates unchanged in February and signalled that it was done hiking rates. Economists see it starting to cut rates after the Fed.
The AUD/USD pair will also react to the upcoming US jobs numbers and statements by Fed officials like Jerome Powell, Michele Bowman, Loretta Mester, and Mary Daly.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD exchange rate bottomed at 0.6485 last week and then rebounded to 0.6520 after the US PCE report. It has remained below the 50-period moving average. Also, the pair is hovering slightly above the crucial support at 0.6510, its lowest swing on March 20th and March 22nd.
The pair has dropped below the Ichimoku cloud while the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to the overbought point. Therefore, the pair will likely have a bearish breakout as sellers target last week’s low of 0.6485.
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