- The US dollar has done very little during the trading session on Tuesday, but quite frankly it is stable at a very high level against the Japanese yen, so that of course is a very bullish sign.
- Ultimately, I think this is a market that eventually breaks out to the upside, but it also makes quite a bit of sense that we would see a lot of momentum chasing given enough time, but right now I think we are just simply taken a bit of a breather after a massive run higher.
- We are sitting just below the crucial ¥152 level, an area that previously had been a swing high.
Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve of course takes front and center when it comes to this pair, especially now that the Bank of Japan has raised its interest rates to a paltry 0.1%, which is still miles apart from what’s going on in America. Because of this, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see a lot of upward pressure, and if we can get a daily close above the ¥152 level, that is likely that we could open up and move to the ¥155 level. Underneath, the ¥150 level is a major support level based on psychology, and then after that we have the 50-Day EMA the comes into the picture and will attract a lot of attention. The 50-Day EMA is an indicator that a lot of technical analysts love, and therefore you need to look at it through that prism.
If we were to break down below the 50-Day EMA, it could change quite a bit, perhaps setting up more of a “reset” when it comes to this pair. That being said, the fact that we have very little in the way of economic announcements this week that could move the markets and the fact that we are willing to stay at these extremely high levels tells me this pair is significantly bullish and should not be looked at through the prism of potentially shortening. I remain bullish, and I recognize that although a little patience may be needed, this is a market that should go higher.
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