Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0775.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0885.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.0850 and a take-profit at 1.0900.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0800.
The EUR/USD pair pulled back slightly after the weak US consumer confidence report. The pair retreated to 1.0830, erasing some of the gains it made on Monday. It will now react to the upcoming US and European data.
US and European data ahead
The EUR/USD pair has been fairly volatile in the past few weeks as traders focused on the recent actions by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). The two banks left rates unchanged and hinted that they will maintain their data-dependence.
Most economists expect that the two central banks will start cutting rates this year. The Fed’s dot plot pointed to three cuts, which most analysts expect will start in June. However, some economists see no need to cut rates since inflation remains above the 2% target.
The pair retreated slightly after a report revealed that the country’s consumer confidence tumbled again in March. According to the Conference Board, the figure retreated to 104.7, the third straight month of declines.
The next important EUR/USD news will come from Europe. Spain will publish the preliminary inflation figures for March. Economists expect the figure to show that the headline CPI rose from 2.8% in February to 3.1% in March. They also expect that the harmonised CPI rose to 3.3%.
The Eurostat will also publish the latest business and consumer confidence figures. Economists believe that confidence in the bloc remained under pressure because of high interest rates in the bloc. Still, the impact on the euro will be a bit limited.
The other important numbers will come from the US, which will publish the second estimate of the GDP report on Thursday followed by the PCE data on Friday. The PCE is one of the most popular economic numbers in the US because it is the most followed by the Fed.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The EUR/USD pair crashed to a low of 1.0800 on Friday and then rebounded to 1.0865 on Monday. It has now pulled back to 1.0830, lower than the 50-period moving average. The pair has moved between the first and second support levels of the Andrew’s Pitchfork tool.
It also retreated below the upper side of the descending channel while the Chaikin Oscillator has crossed the neutral point. Therefore, the outlook for the pair is bearish, with the next reference level to watch being at 1.0775.
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