- The Swiss Franc initially fell during the trading session on Friday, breaking below the ¥168.50 level, only to turn around and find a bit of a massive amount of support.
- Ultimately, the market ended up forming a bit of a hammer and it does suggest that we are going to turn around and take out to the outside.
- The 50-Day EMA above offers a significant short-term barrier and will have a lot to do with the potential reaction that we see here.
- That being said, keep in mind that both of these currencies are essentially “funding currencies.”
Technical Analysis
Now that I look at the start, it’s obvious that we have a lot of support underneath and I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we take off to the upside. If we turn around and break above the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Friday, then we can challenge the 50-Day EMA. Breaking above there opens up the possibility of a move to the ¥170.80 level. After that, we have the 170 and level which was a major resistance barrier and the top in the market recently.
Underneath, the ¥167 level is an area that offers a lot of support, right along with the 200-Day EMA underneath there. All things being equal, this is a market that every time we pull back, there will be plenty of buyers willing to get involved as although the Swiss franc is a weak currency, the reality is that the Japanese offer much less in the way of interest, and therefore I think that even though the Bank of Japan offered a short-term rate hike, the reality is that the Swiss still offer quite a bit more and therefore you get paid to hang on to this pair.
In general, I expect to see a lot of noisy and choppy behavior, but I still favor the upside in the fact that we have pulled back a bit and bounced suggest that we might have a nice 2 or 3 day trade on her hand to the upside, but I don’t necessarily know that I’m expecting to see some type of massive breakout.
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