Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 70,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 60,755.
- Timeline: 1-3 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 64,000 and a stop-loss at 60,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 67,000.
Bitcoin price remained under pressure on Thursday morning as the market reacted to the second Fed decision of the year. The BTC/USD pair also reacted to the ongoing liquidations of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) ETF. It was trading at 65,000, higher than this week’s low of 60,755.
GBTC liquidations and Fed
The Federal Reserve delivered another mildly dovish interest rate decision. The bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%. Its dot plot also signalled that it will deliver three rate cuts this year.
The decision was significantly more dovish than expected since most analysts expected the bank to change its guidance since inflation has remained at an elevated level. Data released last week showed that the headline inflation rose to 3.1% while the core CPI jumped by 3.8%.
The actions of the Federal Reserve are important for all assets, including cryptocurrencies and stocks. Therefore, the dovish Fed explains why Bitcoin tilted upwards while the top American indices like the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 rose to record highs.
The BTC/USD pair has also been reacting to the ongoing liquidations of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the biggest ETF in the industry. Many investors have been selling their GBTC shares in the past two months because of its significant fees.
The GBTC ETF charges an expense ratio of 1.50%, which is much higher than what other ETFs are charging. For example, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBTC) has an expense ratio of 0.25%. This means that GBTC investors are losing substantial sums of money.
Therefore, most investors are moving from GBTC to other Bitcoin ETFs. Still, on the positive side, there are signs that Bitcoin may continue rising ahead of the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD pair has been in a downward trend in the past few days. It has retreated from last week’s high of 73,500 to a low of 60,755. The pair dropped to the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement point.
It has remained below the 50-period moving average. On the positive side, Bitcoin has formed a descending channel or a falling wedge pattern. In most periods, this pattern is usually a bullish sign.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will bounce back as bulls target the important psychological level of 70,000. A drop below this week’s low of 60,755 will point to more downside.
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