- The US dollar's gains rose this week after the announcement of a stronger US inflation numbers than expected, which supports the US central bank's policy remaining dovish for a longer period.
- Accordingly, gold prices fell down with losses that reached the support level of $1,989 per ounce, which is the lowest price in two months.
Gold price XAU/USD fell below the psychological level of $2,000 for the first time in 2024, driven by a higher US dollar and higher Treasury yields fueled by hotter than expected US inflation data.
Overall, the price of the yellow metal struggled to build any momentum as the US dollar got off to its best start to a year in over a decade without any obvious triggers, gold prices could head below the $2,000 threshold for a while.
According to gold trading platforms, gold prices have fallen by 3.25% so far this year. As for the price of silver, which is the sister commodity to gold, it rose to about $22 per ounce. In general, the price of the white metal has decreased by more than 8% since the beginning of the year until now.
In general, the crash of gold prices began after the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which was higher than expected in January. As the FX Daily report noted: “According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the annual inflation rate in the United States fell to 3.1% in January, down from 3.4% in December. This was higher than economists’ expectations of 2.9%. On a monthly basis, it rose CPI rose 0.3% higher than expected. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food components, held steady at 3.9% year-on-year, beating market estimates of 3.7%. Core CPI rose 0.4%, also higher than expected Economists amounted to 0.3%.
But worse, the Fed's preferred super inflation, which consists mostly of labour intensive services with the exception of housing and energy it rose 0.8% and rose about 4% over the year. This has led investors to abandon their hopes of cutting or control U.S. interest rates in upcoming May. Traders are now pricing in the first rate cut at the June FOMC meeting.
Inflation and delayed Reducing interest rates caused turmoil in Wall Street markets , Financial market indexes crashed , while U.S. Treasury and dollar yields rose. The US dollar index (DXY), a measure of the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, reached 105 Overall, the index has risen to nearly 4% since the beginning of the year.
A strong dollar is usually lower for dollar denominated assets, such as gold, because it makes it more expensive for foreign investors to buy.
Another factor influencing the gold market. Bond yields have risen in all areas. The yield on the 10-year bond rose to 4 .31%, the yield on the two-year bond jumped above 4 64%, and the yield on the 30-year bond firmed above the 4.46%. Gold is sensitive to higher interest rates because it affects the opportunity cost of non-yielding bullion acquisition.
For other metal commodity prices, copper futures fell to $3.705 per pound. Platinum futures fell to $877.60 an ounce. Palladium futures fell to $859.00 an ounce.
Today's gold price forecast:
According to the performance on the daily chart above, there has been a significant shift in the performance of the gold price XAU/USD by moving below the psychological level of $2,000 for the ounce and the next level to the top of $1985 for the ounce and from it. Technical indicators will move towards strong saturation levels by selling and I set the level for thinking about buying gold again but without risk as global geopolitical tensions continue to support the demand for gold bullion. Bulls' control will be restored if prices return to $2025. I still prefer to buy gold from every downward level.
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