- The USD/JPY exchange rate continued its strong upward trend this week after the United States published strong inflation numbers for January.
- According to Forex currency trading platforms, the pair rose to its highest level near the 151 resistances, which is its highest point since last November, with the focus shifting to the upcoming Japanese GDP numbers.
- Recently, The USD/JPY pair rose strongly as the US Dollar Index (DXY) continued its remarkable return.
- Technically, the indicator was ready for an upward breakout as it formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern. In most cases, this is one of the most common bullish signs in the market.
In general, this rise occurred after the United States of America released strong inflation numbers. According to Economic Calendar data and according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline CPI rose 3.1% in January, higher than the average estimate of 2.9%. Also, core inflation remained at 3.9%, double the US Federal Reserve's target of 2.0%. The implication is that the Fed will likely not move to lower US interest rates as markets expect.
According to analysts, “the FOMC’s cautious stance appears increasingly justified in this context.” Wisdom must prevail, and that is the message I urge investors to heed. Therefore, the underappreciated volatility in the market underscores the need for careful consideration of investment and risk management strategies. The VIX has begun to reflect this, reaching the 15 range as we expected.
Looking ahead, the next big news for USD/JPY will come on Thursday when Japan publishes its latest GDP numbers. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to show that the Japanese economy grew by 0.2% in the fourth quarter after shrinking by 0.7% in the third quarter. This growth will be driven by a 0.3% increase in consumer spending and external demand. Similarly, the report will come as many analysts expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to make its first interest rate hike in more than a decade this year. Moreover, inflation and wage growth have remained flat in the past few months.
Will the Price of the US Dollar Decrease in the Upcoming Days?
The lion's share of the US dollar's move higher may be behind us, as financial markets finally adjust to the Federal Reserve's warning that it will resist cutting US interest rates too early. In this regard, Darrag Maher, head of the research department at HSBC Bank, says: “It seems that not fighting the US Federal Reserve is the lesson learned so far this year.”
HSBC holds a bullish thesis on the US dollar in 2024, arguing that the market will have to reach its view that there will be much fewer interest rate cuts in the coming months than was generally assumed. In general, the US dollar is the best-performing currency in 2024 amid a major reassessment of US interest rate expectations.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
The daily chart shows that USD/JPY continued to make higher highs and higher lows after bottoming at 140.25 in January. Technically, it flipped the important resistance point at 148.77 (Jan 19 high) to support this week. Also, USD/JPY pair remained above the 50-day and 25-day moving averages, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remained above 20. This is a sign that the pair has upward momentum. Therefore, the outlook is bullish, with the next reference level to watch being the 151.87 resistance, the highest point on November 13. Today, the price of the US dollar will be affected by the announcement of US retail sales figures, the number of weekly unemployment claims, and the US industrial production rate.
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