- The USD/ILS is near the 3.58100 ratio as of this writing. The currency pair touched a low of 3.57785 momentarily yesterday with a sudden surge lower, but reversed higher and began to straddle its current price range.
- Wednesday’s trading following a national holiday in Israel on Tuesday when the nation held municipal elections.
- When volumes increased early yesterday a brief buying spurt occurred and a high of 3.62550 came into sight, but resistance began to show strength and an incremental move lower soon developed.
Yesterday’s weaker than expected GDP numbers from the U.S added additional fuel to selling of the USD/ILS and when the 3.60000 level proved vulnerable the currency pair continued its move lower. Having been able to break below this level is important; the question is if values can be sustained beneath the mark for a span longer than a day.
Inflation Data from U.S and the USD/ILS Reaction
The USD/ILS will see rather steady trading volume today, but speculators need to understand the U.S will release crucial inflation numbers today and volatility could become stronger as the day progresses. While the currency pair has certainly seen its value fluctuate due to the ongoing war with Hamas, the USD/ILS is now trading in what appears to be a correlated manner to the broad Forex market and outlooks regarding U.S Federal Reserve policy.
Economic data from the U.S has been weaker than anticipated the past few days and if the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index falls short of its estimate today this could spark further USD weakness across global Forex. The question then becomes if support ratios which have proven durable in early January of this year and in the middle of July 2023 will start to crumble. Traders of the USD/ILS should not get too overly ambitious regarding the downward capabilities of the currency pair.
3.58000 Level a Potential Catalyst for USD/ILS
If early trading today sustains value below the 3.60000 level going into the U.S inflation report later today, this could be a signal that financial institutions are leaning towards more selling of the USD/ILS, but support near the 3.58000 to 3.57000 will likely be a factor. If the PCE Price Index is weaker than expected it will likely set up a large test of these support ratios and the 3.57000 to 3.56000 could then certainly be tested.
- Traders of the USD/ILS today should use strong risk management if they are participating in the currency pair when the U.S inflation reports get set to release.
- The PCE Price Index is a key tool used by the U.S Federal Reserve regarding its monetary outlook, while a weaker number would spur selling of the USD/ILS, a stronger outcome could mean a move higher for the currency pair. Volatility will develop upon any surprised in the USD/ISL.
USD/ILS Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 3.59550
Current Support: 3.58100
High Target: 3.63140
Low Target: 3.56500
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