Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2720.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2600.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 1.2650 and a take-profit at 1.2600.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2725.
The GBP/USD pair was flat on Tuesday morning as it hovers near its highest point since February 2nd of this year. It has rebounded by 1.25% from its lowest point this year, making sterling one of the best-performing developed country currencies.
US economic numbers ahead
The GBP/USD reacted mildly to Monday’s new home sales numbers. According to the Census Bureau, new home sales rose for the second straight month in January. They jumped to 661k after rising by 651k in the previous month. This increase was weaker than the median estimate of 680k.
The next important data to watch will be the upcoming US economic numbers. The Conference Bureau will release the latest consumer confidence report. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to show that confidence remained at 114.8 in February.
Consumer confidence is an important number because consumer spending is the biggest part of the American economy. As a result, highly confident consumers mean that they could spend more, boosting the economy.
The US will also release the latest house price index (HPI) data. Economists believe that house prices continued rising in December because of the supply and demand mismatch in the housing sector.
The other important data to watch will be the durable goods data, which are an important part of the economy. Economists expect the data to show that durable goods orders retreated by 4.7% in January while core durable goods rose by 0.2% after rising by 0.6% in the previous month.
There will be other important economic numbers later this week, including the PCE report and US GDP data. The PCE report is important data because it is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. This report comes a week after the Fed’s minutes showed that officials were concerned about cutting rates.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The GBP/USD has continued its bullish trend in the past few weeks. Along the way, the pair has formed an ascending channel, which is shown in black. It has also remained slightly above the 50-period moving average. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed an ascending channel while the MACD indicator remains above the neutral point.
Therefore, the path of the least resistance is upwards, with the next target to watch being at 1.2720, the upper side of the channel. The stop-loss of this trade will be at 1.2650.
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