- The British pound has regained its strength against the euro, the US dollar, and other major currencies after the sharp declines it witnessed at the start of trading this week, confirming the continued support for the British currency.
- For the second day in a row, the GBP/USD currency pair recovered with gains reaching the 1.2642 resistance level and the recent sell-off losses for the currency pair reached the 1.2518 support level.
- Previously, we had recommended to our valued clients through the free direct recommendations page to buy the sterling dollar from the 1.2550 support with stronger gains now.
The recent recovery in the pound sterling confirms what we suspected that tactical and flow considerations were driving the moves, especially given February's traditionally weak month for the pound. Currently, sterling remains supported primarily by UK bond yields, which have recovered faster than anywhere else (except the US) in 2024, as market expectations for the timing and extent of future rate cuts by the Bank of England have faded.
According to forex trading, the pound-to-euro exchange rate has returned to above 1.17 at the time of writing and is trading above its major moving averages, confirming that the broader momentum studies are supportive. Commenting on sterling's performance, Daria Parkhomenko, an analyst at RBC, said: "Sterling continued its gains in the first month of the year, outperforming most G10 currencies, with the exception of the US dollar, on the back of the UK's two-year swap rate rising more than most other G10 economies."
Moreover, the performance of British and Eurozone bonds indicates a divergence in expectations regarding monetary policy for the Eurozone and the United Kingdom, as the market indicates that it sees the European Central Bank cutting interest rates before the Bank of England. This view is confirmed by the belief that inflation in the Eurozone will return to the 2.0% target faster than that in Britain. In contrast, the Bank of England believes that UK inflation will fall to 2.0% early in April but rise again to 3.0% by the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the rise in British bond yields relative to their German counterparts reflects this expectation, supporting the pound sterling exchange rate in the process.
The Bank of England indicated on February 1 that although the next step in interest rates was likely to be a cut, it was still too early to consider such a move. Following the shift in MPC rhetoric, economists now expect the Bank of England to begin cutting interest rates in August and cut the interest rate by a total of 100 basis points to 4.25% by 2024. Although the size is similar to market pricing - 97 basis points by 2024. Until the end of the year, this will still mean that the Bank of England will start cutting interest rates later than the Fed and the European Central Bank (the Fed expects both to start in June).
Overall, the Bank of England's shift to more gradual interest rate cuts than its peers remove a reason to sell sterling. Although the GBPEUR setup remains supportive, it remains difficult to see a break above the 1.1750 highs in the near future. Obviously, we note that this has not been achieved since 2021. For this to happen, we will need to see further upward surprises in UK data, while the Eurozone and German economies must continue to disappoint. With peak pessimism approaching in the Eurozone, it is hard to see this happening.
GBPUSD Expectations and Analysis Today:
According to the performance on the daily chart above, the price of the pound sterling against the dollar “GBP/USD” is most prominent in its ability to withstand the recent gains of the US dollar. Especially, after the announcement of the US job numbers, which confirm the strength and durability of the US economy despite the path of tightening US Central Bank policy. Technically, the return of the bulls in the GBP/USD pair towards the resistance level of 1.2775 will motivate the bulls to advance strongly again. On the other hand, over the same period of time, breaking the support level of 1.2600 will give the bears the momentum to move down. Finally, we still prefer to buy sterling dollars from every falling level, especially if the positive sentiment in global markets continues.
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