- The British pound vs U.S. dollar was traded cautiously within a range between 1.2750 and 1.2657 and is hovering around the 1.2685 level at the time of writing this analysis.
- Market players are refraining from taking large positions ahead of top-tier central bank decisions from the United States and Britain.
- First, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and at the same time showed no rush to cut as markets had hoped.
- Overall, the hawkish announcement highlighting the possibility of keeping U.S. interest rates higher for longer could mean more upside traction for the U.S. dollar.
At the same time, the Bank of England may have shifted its bias this time around, although the latest set of indicators points to retaining a hawkish tilt. Inflation has remained elevated in Britain, which may be enough for policymakers to keep the door open to further tightening. In this regard, the British pound can find some support as the “Bank of England” sends a message that it is premature to cut interest rates. The expectations come from , the international payments and financial services provider, ahead of the long-awaited interest rate decision and guidance update today, Thursday. Markets are currently priced for the first rate cut to come in May, believing the rapid drop in inflation in April will spur calls for monetary policy easing.
They suspect the February meeting gives the Bank of England a chance to signal such a shift in direction is on the horizon, raising downside risks for the pound. However, ING analysts say today’s Thursday statement reaffirms further hikes are still possible, even if not the Bank’s core scenario. So far, the Bank of England has maintained its guidance that more tightening would be warranted if inflation stays stickier than anticipated.
Economists agree it would point to a “shift” in policy towards favoring interest rate cuts if the Bank were to remove this line. But analysts say February is too early for such a development.
Members of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have tended to push back against market expectations for cuts in recent communications, and analysts believe dove Bailey is likely to stress it is still “premature” to think about easing policy during the press conference.
According to forex market trading, the British pound is the best performing currency of the Group of Ten over the past month, thanks to the gradual retreat in rate cut expectations and resilient risk-on sentiment globally. Goldman Sachs analysts therefore say the pound is likely to keep outperforming provided the global backdrop stays supportive, regardless of the scale of any pivot announced Thursday. Goldman Sachs says: “GBP has benefited significantly from the global disinflationary trend and shift towards policy easing. GBP tends to perform particularly well in an environment characterized by low volatility, high equity prices".
As such, the global picture could be the ultimate determinant of how much further the currency can progress.
GBP/USD Expectations Today:
If what is mentioned is as expected from the central banks, the currency pair may return to the top of the range and the breakout past the 1.2775 resistance could follow a bullish trajectory that is at least as tall as the chart formation or approximately 200 pips. For now, the 100 is still above the 200 to indicate there is opportunity for the currency pair to rise or support is likely to hold it more than break it. However, the gap between the indicators is narrowing to reflect weakening upside momentum and potential bearish crossover. At the same time stochastics is rising to overbought without having reached oversold, suggesting buyers are eager to take control. However, the relative strength index still appears to be moving lower so sellers may remain in control until peak selling conditions are fulfilled.
Support break below could also yield a downside drop that is just as tall as the formation height too.
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