- As it appears that we are attempting to move a little bit higher in order to hit the 50-day EMA, we are challenging the 200-day EMA early on Tuesday.
- By then, the 1.09 level, where there is a lot of selling pressure, might be in play.
When all else is equal, this market is recovering from a very low point. And from here on, we will need to decide if we are dealing with a market that is likely to remain in a range or if it is simply recovering from an extremely oversold situation. We are, I believe, currently establishing a range for this year. Additionally, it appears that purchasers may be interested in 1.07.
On the Upside…
Although there are a number of potential resistance barriers on the upside, I believe that the 1.10 level—which is an options area—is the biggest one. It's a big rounded figure. We'll just have to wait and see because this is a field that has already shown itself. Because both of these central banks will be cutting this year, which naturally makes both currencies a little bit soft, expect choppy activity.
There would be more of a risk off move in the US dollar and it would likely pick up versus most things if we were to turn around and breach below the 1.07 level. At that point, it wouldn't be simply the Euro. That being said, I believe that this is a good currency pair to keep an eye on as an indicator or, if you intend to trade in and out of swings, as long as you have a lot of patience.
Recall that the Euro usually moves slowly, and I believe that this year will most likely set up to be no different. As things currently stand, I believe we are starting to gain some speed, but most traders won't be shocked by the distance we end up traveling. After all, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy and therefore it will retain its rather lackluster performance over the longer term, making it essentially a great indicator of the US dollar strength or weakness, but not much beyond that.
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