- A simple look at the results of trading for the EUR/USD in February via a one month technical chart should be enough to highlight the volatility which has occurred for all speculators.
- The question for those who want to pursue the currency pair in March is if the rather choppy conditions demonstrated the past handful of weeks is going to begin subsiding.
Behavioral sentiment in the broad Forex markets has shifted consistently in the past handful of weeks which has led to rather violent price fluctuations as financial institutions have changed their outlooks nervously. The high of 1.08980 which was momentarily hit on the 2nd of February was quickly turned into an assault on lows which hit the 1.07230 on the 5th. Since the beginning of February choppiness has prevailed and the current price of the EUR/USD near 1.08160 almost feels like a positive accomplishment.
Sustained Value over the 1.08000 Level has been Difficult
Viewpoints regarding what the U.S Federal Reserve will do in the spring have now changed to questions about what the Fed do in the early summer. Shifting tides regarding outlook has caused turbulent conditions for speculators. Some traders still may feel the EUR/USD remains in oversold territory and the prospect of a stronger currency pair may be enticing. However, timeframe considerations must be dealt with when weighing perspectives on what the current value of the EUR/USD is now and its daily gyrations, compared to mid and long term outlooks. The 1.08000 level has been important during February.
While value has been sustained over the 1.08000 level since the 21st of February, there are enough worries about U.S economic data and European numbers to cause financial institutions to remain nervous. Traders may remain convinced that reversals higher should take place when support near the 1.08000 to 1.08100 levels are seen, but the ability of the EUR/USD to move below these levels has caused plenty of problematic results for those with stubborn bullish positions who are over-leveraged.
A Return for the EUR/USD to 1.09000 and Wishful Thinking
- German economic data has been lackluster and hasn’t shown much sign of improvements regarding growth, but inflation remains troubling in the European Union which puts the ECB in a difficult position.
- Technical traders who lean towards bullish momentum in the EUR/USD will want to see durable support start to emerge which offers the hope of a stronger bullish climb.
The belief the EUR/USD should be trading near the 1.09000 level may lead some speculators to continue to bet on upside movement in the currency pair. However, speculators should examine their bias regarding their perceptions regarding higher values in the EUR/USD. Until the U.S Federal Reserve is given inflation data which shows erosion in prices, the EUR/USD could remain in choppy waters and continue to produce volatility like it has over the past month, in fact over the past two months. EUR/USD traders should not get overly ambitious regarding their outlooks for an upwards trend until economic data solidifies their notions.
EUR/USD Outlook for March 2024:
Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.07625 to 1.09010
While nervous sentiment continues to linger in the broad Forex market, but the prevailing viewpoint remains the Federal Reserve will eventually become more dovish, perhaps the best speculative tool for traders to consider using are potential support levels which could ignite some upwards price action. Traders in the EUR/USD during February suffered through uncomfortable value swings if they were not using proper risk management.
If the EUR/USD were to break below the 1.08000 level again and begin to test the 1.07900 to 1.07800 levels, traders may feel emboldened to look for reversals higher. However, before looking for moves higher if support is being tested, traders should ask why the lower moves have taken place. Economic data has rattled financial institutions and their publications may remain a hurdle in March. The upside looks tempting in the EUR/USD, but solid impetus is still needed for a sustained trend to emerge.
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