My previous BTC/USD signal on 14th February was not triggered as there was no bearish price action when any of the key resistance levels were first reached that day.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75% per trade.
- Trades must be entered before the market closes this weekend.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $50,238, $49,793, or $48,402.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $53,201, $53,853, or $55,425.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis just over one week ago that the technical picture was suggesting the $50k area would remain pivotal and may give an opportunity for a speculative short, or alternatively a long trade once we get a daily close firmly above the resistance level at $50,528.
This would have produced a long trade at the end of the day, as the daily close was above that level, and such a trade would have been a little profitable.
The technical picture has not changed since my last forecast – the wide consolidation between $53,000 and $50,600 simply continues. However, the odds do seem to be with the bulls as the price is clearly near a long-term high within a valid long-term bullish trend.
I see a long trade from a bullish bounce between $50,600 and $50,000 as the best opportunity which might set up today. Alternatively, a long trade following a daily close today above $53,201 could also be an interesting entry.
Regarding the US Dollar, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time, followed by Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI at 2:45pm.
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