Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 55,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 49,145.
- Timeline: 1-3 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 51,000 and a take-profit at 49,145.
- Add a stop-loss at 54,000.
The BTC/USD pair remained in a consolidation phase on Tuesday morning ahead of the reopening of America’s markets. Bitcoin was trading at the key resistance point at $52,000, where it has remained at in the past few days. This price is substantially higher than last month’s low of 38,450.
The main driver for Bitcoin is the ongoing inflows into the biggest spot BTC ETFs. All spot ETFs now have over $30 billion in assets, with most of it being the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which has been around for many years. The ETFs by the likes of Blackrock and Fidelity have led the inflows.
There will be no important catalyst for the BTC/USD pair on Tuesday since no economic data is scheduled. Instead, traders will focus on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes, which will provide more color about the recent meeting.
In its first meeting of the year, the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%. Jerome Powell, the bank’s president ruled out cutting rates in its March meeting as most analysts were expecting.
Fed actions have an important role to play across all assets. In most cases, Bitcoin tends to thrive when there are hopes that the Fed will start to cut interest rates in the future. This is one reason why it is hovering at its highest point in over two years.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The 1D chart reveals that Bitcoin has been in a strong uptrend for months. The current phase of the rally started in 2022 after the collapse of FTX. At the time, Bitcoin plunged to a low of $15,000 and has now bounced back to over $52,000.
The BTC/USD pair has constantly remained above the 50-day and 200-day moving average after it formed a golden cross in October last year. A golden cross is one of the most bullish signs in the market.
Most recently, it has moved above the crucial resistance at 49,145, its highest point on January 11th. This price action was important because it invalidated the double-top pattern that was forming.
Further, the pair has formed a bullish pennant pattern, which is one of the most positive sign. Therefore, the outlook for the BTC/USD pair is extreme bullish as buyers target the next psychological point at 55,000. The stop-loss of this trade is at 49,145.
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