Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 44,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 41,850.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 42,000 and a take-profit at 41,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 44,000.
Bitcoin price was flat on Monday, continuing a consolidation phase that has been going on in the past few days. The BTC/USD pair was trading at 43,000, where it has been in the past few days. This price is much higher than last month’s low of 38,500.
Bitcoin sits and waits
Bitcoin has remained in a tight range, a month after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave its green light for six ETFs. Since then, inflows in these ETFs have remained steady. Blackrock’s IBIT ETF has seen over $2 billion in inflows from both retail and institutional investors.
Bitcoin has also wavered as some investors have moved their assets from crypto to US stocks, which have been surging in the past few months. Recent data shows that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices have all jumped to a record high.
Meanwhile, monetary policy is also playing a role in the industry. In a statement last week, the Federal Reserve hinted that it will not cut rates in March as some analysts were expecting since the economy is doing well.
This view was confirmed last Friday when the US published strong jobs numbers. The report revealed that the unemployment rate remained intact at 3.7% as the economy created over 353k jobs during the month.
These numbers, coupled with the steady inflation and strong GDP figures, have removed the Fed’s incentive to cut rates. This is important for Bitcoin because hopes of Fed’s rate cuts have helped Bitcoin and other assets bounce back.
The next important Bitcoin event will happen in April when the coin will go through halving, where the total rewards to miners are halved.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The 4H chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a consolidation phase in the past few days. It has remained at the crucial support level at 43,000 and attempts to have a breakout have found a resistance at 43,902. Similarly, attempts to have a bearish breakout found a support at 41,846.
Bitcoin has remained slightly above the 50-period moving average. However, a bearish divergence pattern has happened, as evidenced by the MACD indicator. Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range on Monday as traders wait for the next catalyst. The key levels to watch will be at 41,845 and 43,900.
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