- The USD/JPY displayed a significant rally during Tuesday's trading session, breaching the 142 yen level and signaling renewed vitality.
- A potential break above the 142.80 yen level could signify the clearance of substantial resistance, opening the door to a move towards the 200-day Exponential Moving Average.
It's important to bear in mind that the market is likely to remain volatile, primarily due to its focus on the potential shift in monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts next year, as indicated by the dot plot, are worth noting, although it's essential to recognize that these projections are not set in stone. Nevertheless, market sentiment often aligns with these dot plot figures.
At present, the market hovers near a critical support level, with the uptrend line at the 141 yen mark. Consequently, a bounce from this level seems reasonable. The heightened volatility in this market can present challenges for traders, given its sensitivity to various factors. Nonetheless, this could be one of the biggest challenges and opportunities for traders that can appear in 2024.
The Market is Offering Some Value
Looking ahead, potential resistance is expected to emerge not only from the 200-day EMA but also at the 145 yen level. Breaking above these levels would require a notable shift in market sentiment. The upcoming jobs report on Friday could serve as a catalyst for such a change, given the pair's sensitivity to this data. Also, the bond markets will continue to be a major driver for the US dollar, and by extension, this pair.
At the end of the day, the recent rally in the USD/JPY indicates a resurgence of strength. The market's focus on potential monetary policy changes in Japan and the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations contribute to its volatility. Despite the challenges posed by this volatility, the market currently appears to offer some value, with the possibility of a short-term bounce. Overall, the US dollar is striving to find its footing amid oversold conditions.
Potential signal: I am a buyer of this pair above the 142.80 level, as it should show a break of minor resistance and follow through of momentum. I would have a stop of 100 points, and would have a target of 145 above, as it is an area that has been important more than once.
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