USD/JPY Analysis: U.S Growth and Inflation Data and Speculative Winds

• Speculators who have remained stubborn and have been looking for bearish price action to reignite may believe the past couple of days have provided some evidence the USD/JPY has been overbought.
• However, before wild bets on downside are placed by traders they should consider what they are up against today and tomorrow.
• The Bank of Japan remained quite cautious early this week and issued no significant changes to their monetary policy.
• The BoJ in essence continues to look like they are willing to let the U.S Federal Reserve be the focus.

Japanese exports are doing well. The Nikkei Index in Tokyo is doing well. The Bank of Japan doesn’t seem to be under much duress with the weaker realms of the Japanese Yen. Inflation while showing some signs of life in Japan remains muted. Evidence suggests the Bank of Japan is interested in maintaining a weaker Japanese Yen to help export companies in Japan, thus creating better values on nation’s largest stock index – this as long as inflation doesn’t get out of control.

Technical Ratios Matter in the USD/JPY

There are psychological marks in which the BoJ likely doesn’t want the USD/JPY to climb too high, a good guess may believe the 150.000 level is too high might carry some consideration of intervention by the BoJ. The USD/JPY is trading near the 147.710 mark as of this writing. On Tuesday of this week the USD/JPY was trading near the 148.700 ratio. On the 19th of January, last Friday, the USD/JPY traded near a high around 148.800 – this value had last been seen around the 28th of November.

The BoJ likely doesn’t mind if the USD/JPY trades to lower values like it did in December when the currency pair was near the 140.250 mark on the 28th of December, but today’s price probably is acceptable to them for the time being too. The Bank of Japan probably has ‘inside’ knowledge the U.S Federal Reserve is still leaning towards a more dovish interest rate policy. Yet important data will be coming from the U.S today and tomorrow which could cause nervousness in central bank and financial institutions. Day traders need to be extremely cautious.

Growth and Inflation Data from the U.S is on the Schedule

Technical traders who do not like looking at fundamentals may want to keep an ear open regarding the GDP release from the U.S today. If growth numbers are better than expected it could spur some additional USD/JPY buying. However, tomorrow’s inflation data via the Core PCE will have an equally strong affect. If the inflation number is weaker it could spur on selling of the USD/JPY, this because the Fed watches this inflation number like a hawk.

• USD/JPY traders should be very cautious today regarding risk. The price range of the USD/JPY will become volatile later today and get hit again tomorrow with very active trading.
• U.S data has been mixed recently. And while inflation numbers have shown some capacity to decrease, betting on a weaker result before the official publication of the Core PCE numbers tomorrow is dangerous.

USD/JPY Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 148.035

Current Support: 147.675

High Target: 148.610

Low Target: 146.450