The GBP/USD touched a high of nearly 1.28280 last week, this was accomplished on Thursday. The GBP/USD however finished the week near the 1.27230 level and it can be argued technically that the currency pair didn’t produce much in the way of gains last week. Holiday trading certainly affected the GBP/USD. Light volumes in Forex were demonstrated and the highs made on Thursday quickly fizzled out as speculators promptly took the GBP/USD lower.
The question about what last trading means will likely be met with unknowing shrugs. Traders shouldn’t look for much in the way of truths regarding last week’s results, except to say the GBP/USD did hold onto its higher mid-term range. The currency pair remains firmly within sight of its mid-term highs and important resistance lingers slightly above. But before traders get overly aggressive this week and bet on the upside to be retested towards last Thursday’s highs, they should remember there is another week of holiday trading about to be delivered.
Yes, volumes in the GBP/USD should be slightly larger this week compared to the Christmas holiday weeks, but Forex transactions will be almost nil on New Year’s Day, quite thin on Tuesday, and rise a bit on Wednesday. Financial institutions will remain largely non-participants until the 8th of January. This means another week of rather questionable results will take place in the GBP/USD.
GBP/USD and a Weaker USD Outlook Might Have to Wait
Bullish traders in the GBP/USD will need to be cautious this week. The perception that the USD will be weaker in the mid-term certainly is realistic, but until financial institutions start to position money for their corporate clients this outlook may prove to be rather empty in the near-term. The GBP/USD has performed with a solid bullish trend since late October, but its road upward is littered with plenty of nasty reversals lower which likely hurt day traders who were caught in the momentary volatility.
Day traders who want to wager on the GBP/USD this week need to understand that light volumes can prove dangerous. Even though the trend upwards may look enticing, most day traders may not be able to keep their positions open long enough to benefit from a longer-term trend. Carrying a position overnight in the GBP/USD can prove to be dangerous and when market conditions have light volume - like the week to come, trading results may produce too much choppiness if leverage is being used.
- While the momentum higher in the GBP/USD is attractive, a quick look at a one-month chart shows the value of the currency pair is still near the values seen in mid-December.
- Light trading volumes early this week could prove dangerous in the GBP/USD and traders should remain conservative.
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook:
The speculative price range for GBP/USD is 1.26800 to 1.28400
Risk appetite in Forex has certainly improved, but potential problems for GBP/USD traders aiming for bullish highs in the near-term may remain. The weaker USD outlook may be a perspective many financial institutions feel is rational in the meantime, but most financial institutions will remain absent from trading this week. Large speculators may want to participate this week and move the market, and until full volumes return day traders need to be cautious. Being overly ambitious regarding outlook this week could prove problematic, particularly if a large player feels the short-term market is vulnerable.
Having maintained a value above the 1.27000 level is important for the GBP/USD. The test of prices above the 1.282500 level late last week may be a sign of things to come, but traders should not bet blindly on this mark returning easily. Support should be watched closely on Tuesday and Wednesday, if it can be maintained and the price of the GBP/USD remains within the stronger elements of its mid-term range, buyers may begin to step in with more fortitude on Thursday and Friday of this week. Sustained value above the 1.27700 would be a good signal for the GBP/USD.
