Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2750.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2600.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 1.2650 and a take-profit at 1.2600.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2750.
The GBP/USD price moved sideways after the latest statement by Tom Barkin and Federal Reserve minutes. The pair was consolidating at 1.2670, lower than last Friday’s high of 1.2826.
FOMC minutes
The Federal Reserve published its highly anticipated minutes for its final meeting of 2023. These minutes revealed that all members agreed that the rate hiking cycle was over. They also affirmed that rates should remain restrictive for a while.
Also, the minutes revealed that the committee hoped to start slashing rates this year. The accompanying dot plot pointed to three cuts in 2024. However, the minutes did not signal when these cuts will start.
The minutes came a few hours after Tom Barkin, the head of Richmond Fed, warned that the bank could still hike rates if inflation remains high. This was a notable statement since Barkin will be a voting member of the FOMC this year.
Economists have had mixed views on the timeline for rate cuts. Some believe that the first cut will happen in March this year while others see them coming in the second half of the year. The closely watched Fed rate monitor tool shows that 68% of economists see the first cut happening in March.
The next key data to watch will be America’s jobs numbers. On Wednesday, data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the number of job vacancies in the US dropped to a two-year low in November. That was a sign that the labor market was softening.
The other key data to watch will be the ADP private payroll data. Economists expect these numbers to reveal that the economy added over 115k jobs in December, an improvement from the 103 it created in November. The BLS will publish the official NFP data on Friday.
GBP/USD forecast
The GBP/USD pair wavered after testing the lower side of the ascending channel. The lower side of this channel connects the lowest levels since November 17th. It has moved slightly below the 50-period ALMA. Meanwhile, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have pointed upwards.
The pair also remains at the first support of the Woodie pivot point. Therefore, the outlook for the GBP/USD exchange rate is bullish, with the next reference level being the Woodie pivot point at 1.2740. A drop below the lower side of the channel will invalidate the bullish view.
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