- During the early hours on Tuesday, the British Pound started to rally against the Swiss Franc but has since given back gains.
- We are above the 1.10 level, which of course is a large round number, but ultimately, I also take a look to the left on the chart and see quite a bit of resistance and noise, so therefore it's not a huge surprise to see that we have given up those gains.
At this point, we are still very much in a downtrend, and I do think that the 200 day EMA sitting above continues to offer quite a bit of resistance. If we break down below the 1.10 level, then it's likely that we could go down to the 50 day EMA. Breaking down below the 50 day EMA then opens up the possibility of a move down to the 1.08 level. All things being equal.
Remember, the Swiss Franc is a Safety Currency
It does make a certain amount of sense that the Swiss franc would strengthen against the British pound eventually, but there's also questions out there as to whether or not the Swiss National Bank has been stealthily involved in the forex markets, which it is known to do at times. If we turn around and break above the 200 day EMA, then the 1.1150 level is a target and then after that We could go looking to the 1.1225 level.
Anything above there then would continue to have money running into this market to the upside. When you look at the longer term charts, we could go as high as 1.15, but obviously we need to clear a lot of noise in this general vicinity. Interest rate differential does favor the British pound, but you also have to wonder whether or not the overall risk appetite makes sense because if risk off becomes a thing, then the Swiss franc will also certainly be an attractive Currency to own in general.
I think we are at a major inflection point so we will have to pay close attention to this market and see whether or not we can continue to go higher. Keep in mind that this pair is extraordinarily volatile at times, so you will have to be cautious with your position sizing as per usual.
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