- The EUR/USD started January’s trading above the 1.10350 level, which was on the 2nd of January and since this day the currency pair has eroded in value.
- The decrease in price happened quickly though, a low of 1.09330 was approached on the 2nd.
- The EUR/USD started last week’s trading near the 1.09100 mark which isn’t a significantly different number, except for speculators who worry about the movement of every pip of value, and the further erosion this week after hitting a high of nearly 1.094330 and reversing.
Last weeks’ ECB meeting produced very little in the way of surprises. The Europe Central Bank remains whether they want to admit it or not, seemingly locked within a dependent relationship with the U.S Federal Reserve in what continues to look like coordinated statements. Financial institutions did get good inflation news from the U.S late last week, this as numbers met expectations via the U.S Personal Consumption Expenditures which produced an outcome slightly below the previous month’s result.
However, U.S consumer spending remains robust and this is a concern, because the Federal Reserve would like to see a weaker U.S economy. The Fed will hold its FOMC meeting this week and make their pronouncement this Wednesday. The EUR/USD will move based on the rhetoric that comes from the U.S central bank. Expect no rate cut from the Fed, and for them to give a signal that they are still considering cutting borrowing cost in the late spring. Most financial institutions seem to believe the Fed will begin lowering its Federal Funds rate in May.
EUR/USD was Speculatively Bought and Folks Reacted
Via the results in trading of the EUR/USD it certainly appears many financial institutions believe the buying of the currency pair in December was too bullish. The downwards trend in the EUR/USD the past four weeks cannot be argued. The EUR/USD went into the weekend near the 1.08530 mark which is slightly above the low it produced on Friday around the 1.08120 ratio.
The low seen on the 26th of January and its finish as the day concluded put the EUR.USD within the realms of prices seen on the 13th of December. The price the EUR/USD will begin this week of trading with is not a coincidence. The fact the U.S Federal Reserve will release their FOMC Statement this Wednesday and be used as a ‘rebalancing’ tool by financial institutions makes sense. The question for day traders is if the currency value of the EUR/USD has reached a durable support level and can be used to place wagers while looking for upside price action in the coming days?
Coincidences and Perhaps Clues for the EUR/USD
- The EUR/USD was trading below 1.0800 just before the U.S Federal Reserve released its FOMC Statement on the 13th of December.
- Volatility will certainly be seen this Wednesday and the question is where support levels will hold as the price range of the EUR/USD widens before the Fed’s rhetoric.
- Speculators should not be surprised if the EUR/USD touches the 1.08100 to 1.07950 marks below as lower support levels.
- Traders who are conservative and believe the EUR/USD is now oversold cannot be blamed, but price volatility on Wednesday could prove dangerous for those who use leverage.
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook:
Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.07890 to 1.09610
Early trading Monday and Tuesday will provide insights for speculators trying to understand where technical and fundamental sentiment is leaning. If the EUR/USD can sustain its current ratios and stay above the 1.08400 level this might be taken as a sign more buying is going to develop. But traders need to understand that before the U.S Fed makes its FOMC Statement public that price ratios within the EUR/USD will get wider technically on Wednesday.
Stubborn traders who have continued to look for upside in the EUR/USD have likely faced a difficult four weeks and this week could produce more Forex madness. The currency pair may appear oversold, but the current price range of the EUR/USD may be seen as fair market equilibrium for the time being. Those looking for upside should remain realistic in the days ahead.
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