- The Euro did nothing during the trading session on Monday, which makes quite a bit of sense considering there is almost nothing in the way of economic announcements during the day.
EUR/USD
The Euro tried to rally initially during the trading session on Monday but hasn’t gotten any strength out of this. That being said, it should not be a huge surprise considering there is almost nothing in the way of economic numbers coming out during the day. This has been a theme with most of the assets that I follow, and of course this pair is a bit of a microcosm for where money is flowing around the world, as it is obviously the largest market in that sphere.
Because of this, I expect that we are probably going to see more or less choppy trading over the next 24 hours, and it should also be noted that we are hanging around near the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA has been very reliable over the last several months as potential support, so I think that does come into play here. That being said, it’s not until we break above or below one of these moving averages will I be convinced that there’s an actual trade coming.
If we do break higher, then it becomes a short-term “buy-and-hold” type of situation for me to go long as it would show real bullishness. On a breakdown below one of these two moving averages, then I would anticipate something akin to “sell and hold.”
At the moment…
At this point in time, I think you simply have to let one side or the other prove itself before you can put any real size into this market. In other words, look for an impulsive candlestick.
The trade: Wait for an impulsive candlestick.
If we were to eventually break higher from here towards 1.10 level will continue to be significant resistance levels and if we break down below 1.08 level, then the pair is in serious trouble. Keep an eye on the 10 year yield in America as yields rise that'll make the dollar stronger as they fall it'll make it weaker unless of course it is a huge run to safety and in that case, you'll see yields drop and dollar strengthen but that's typically due to an event.
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