My previous BTC/USD signal on 28th December produced an excellent, nicely profitable long trade from the hourly inside bar which rejected the key support level at $40,623.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades may only be taken before 5 pm Tokyo time on Friday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $42,814, $42,583, or $41,709.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Idea
- Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $44,228.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis one week ago that Bitcoin’s technical picture
became more bearish following topping price action around $44,000 with the resistance level at $44,228 looking especially strong. This was a good call insofar as the price further over the course of the day.
After that temporary fall, the price rallied strongly to make a new 20-month high above $45,000 but has again sold off sharply from that level. The initial bullish break was partly attributes to an increasing feeling that the Blackrock Bitcoin ETF will secure regulatory approval within just a few days. The subsequent selloff can be attributes to the strong flow into the US Dollar and out of risky assets which we have seen since markets opened in 2024.
The wider technical picture here remains bullish for two reasons:
- The price is contained within a wide but symmetrical ascending price channel, which is a bullish sign.
- The price is clearly not far off the high of a long-term bullish trend.
These factors make me feel that long trades are likely to work out better over the medium-term, so I see long trade entries from any bullish bounces at the nearby support levels as the best opportunities which might arise.
Regarding the US Dollar, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 1:15pm London time followed by Unemployment Claims data 15 minutes later.
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