Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 46,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 44,380.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 45,000 and a take-profit at 44,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 46,000.
The BTC/USD pair continued its uptrend this week even as US bond yields bounced back. Bitcoin jumped to a high of $45,950 for the first time in more than two years. It has risen by more than 190% from its lowest level in December 2022.
Bitcoin ETF hopes continue
The BTC/USD pair rallied this week as the US dollar index (DXY) bounced back. The index, which tracks the greenback against other leading currencies like sterling and the euro, rose to $101.50. It bottomed at $100.3 last week.
Bitcoin jumped even after US bond yields bounced back. The 10-year yield rose by over 2.30% to 3.955 while the 30-year jumped to 4.08%. This rebound happened as traders reacted to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.
Expectations are that this crisis will stir inflation in the coming months as shipping costs rise. Data shows that the average cost of shipping has been on an uptrend in the past few weeks. Higher inflation could impact the pace of rate cuts by the Fed and other central banks.
Bitcoin rally was mostly because of the ongoing hopes that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Bitcoin ETF. The agency has until January 10th to deliver its ruling. In it, the agency will either approve, reject, or postpone these ETFs.
A Bitcoin approval will be a positive catalyst for the coin because it will likely lead to more institutional demand. Besides, investors have almost $6 trillion in dry powder, which they can deploy to Bitcoin.
The next key catalyst to watch will be the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes. These minutes will provide more information about the final meeting of the year. In it, the bank left interest rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD pair made a bullish breakout as hopes of a spot Bitcoin ETF rose. On the daily chart, the pair moved above the key resistance point at 45,000. It also flipped the crucial resistance at 44,380 (December 20th high) into support.
Bitcoin remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pointed upwards. Therefore, the outlook for Bitcoin is bullish, with the next level to watch being at 46,000. The stop-loss of this trade will be at 44,380.
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