Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 46,500.
- Add a stop-loss at 44,500..
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 45,000 and a take-profit at 44,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 46,500.
Bitcoin price made a bullish breakout on Tuesday as volume started rising after falling sharply in the final week of the year. The BTC/USD pair was trading at 45,100, higher than last week’s low of 41,300.
Bitcoin ETF rumours continue
Bitcoin has consolidated in the past few weeks as traders wait for the next catalyst. The biggest upcoming catalyst will be the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision on the recent Bitcoin ETF applications.
Companies like Blackrock, Invesco, and Franklin Templeton have all applied for these assets. Media reports say that the deadline for this approval will be on January 7th. In this case, the SEC will either approve these proposals, reject them, or postpone its decision.
The SEC has worked hard in the past few months to review these ETFs. In December, the agency met with Blackrock and Nasdaq, two big players in the sector. Blackrock is the biggest asset manager in the world while Nasdaq is the primary listing venue for these funds.
Some analysts believe that Bitcoin price will continue doing well if the SEC approves a Bitcoin ETF. Others, on the other hand, expect a sell-on-the-news situation when this happens.
The other important Bitcoin news to watch this week will be the upcoming US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data scheduled for Friday. These numbers are expected to show that the labor market continued strengthening in December as the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%.
US jobs numbers are important because of their impact on the Federal Reserve actions. In most cases, the bank cuts rates when the labor market is softening and vice versa. In its December meeting, the Fed pointed to three rate cuts this year.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD pair has been crawling back in the past few days after bottoming at 41,300 on Saturday. On the 4H chart, Bitcoin has crossed the important 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
It rose above the symmetrical triangle pattern that is shown in black. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator have drifted upwards. Therefore, the outlook for the pair is bullish, with the next point to watch being 46,500 as the January effect takes place.
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