AUDUSD Forecast: Australian dollar struggles to hang on to gains

• The Aussie dollar has shown itself to be somewhat hesitant during the trading session to follow through on upward momentum.
• The 200 day EMA of course is an indicator that a lot of people will pay close attention to as it is a long-term trend indicator, and it seems to be offering enough resistance to keep the market somewhat muted.
• With this being the case, I think it's probably a scenario where we continue to see a lot of back and forth in this area, and it does make a certain amount of sense, because quite frankly, there's a lot of uncertainty out there.

Other Influences on the Aussie

Remember, the Australian dollar is highly influenced by global trade, global appetite, global transference of money from consumers to producers on a macroeconomic scale, and therefore, you also have to pay attention to commodities. As the economy expands, commodities get more in demand and that helps countries like Australia. And in fact, a lot of forex traders simply use this as a way to play gold or sometimes aluminum, iron, those types of things. In fact, it’s not uncommon for the markets to basically trade on commodities instead of anything that’s actually happening in Australia itself. Furthermore, you also have to pay attention to interest rates in the United States as they obviously have a major influence on the US dollar itself, and therefore a major influence on anything traded in that denomination such as this currency pair.

If we can break above the 50 day EMA, I think the Australian dollar could go looking to the 0.67 level above, which has been a bit of a magnet for price. Ultimately, if we break there, then we could go to 0.69, the top of the overall range. I think the 0.65 level underneath continues to be important and should offer a bit of a floor, although I don't know if things are that bad yet. If we do see that happen, you will more likely than not see the US dollar strengthen against almost everything. So, it will be a market wide phenomenon. As things stand right now, I think we're just trying to tread water and sort out whether or not the 0.65 support level holds.