The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy shift towards near-term tightening and the abandonment of negative interest rates is continuing to drive strong and sharp gains for the Japanese yen against other major currencies. However, those gains are even stronger against the US dollar, which has been negatively affected by the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) indications of a possible rate cut in 2024. Therefore, these factors were enough to push the USD/JPY pair sharply lower, hitting the support level of 140.77 at the time of writing this report. Meanwhile, the lowest level in five months and the closest point to breaking the psychological support of 140.00, which could increase the dominance of the strong bears on the trend.
There are no major reports from the US and Japanese economies for the rest of the week, so the dollar and yen may take cues from market sentiment and political biases. Remember that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has hinted at the possibility of three US rate cuts next year, which could mean more downside for the dollar amid expectations of lower borrowing costs and increased risk appetite.
However, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has also downplayed the possibility of the BoJ exiting its easy policy anytime soon, reiterating that they will wait until the wage inflation cycle strengthens before raising rates. Moreover, this suggests that they will wait for spring wage negotiations to see if any upward pressure on wages translates into higher inflation.
Overall, the USD/JPY pair is likely to remain under pressure in the near term, with the BoJ's policy shift and the Fed's rate cut expectations continuing to weigh on the dollar. Whereby, the pair could find some support if the BoJ provides more clarity on its policy plans or if there is a significant deterioration in US economic data.
USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, USD/JPY price formed lower highs and found support around the key psychological mark at 142.00, forming a bearish triangle on its short-term time frames. Recently, the price bounced off the support and may set its sights on resistance. Also, the 100 SMA is still below the 200 SMA to confirm that the overall trend is still bearish. Currently, the price is trading below both moving averages, so these could remain as dynamic resistance and send USDJPY back to the bottom of the triangle. Correspondingly, a bearish crossover could attract more sellers and even trigger a breakout below support, which could lead to a sell-off at the same height as the formation or around 500 pips.
At the same time, the Stochastic indicator is pointing down to show that selling pressure is in effect, and that the oscillator has room to decline before it reflects oversold or exhaustion levels among the bears. Finally, The RSI is trending lower without reaching the overbought zone, indicating that sellers are keen to grab it.
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