The S&P 500 commenced the trading week with a noticeable upward gap, signaling its intent to forge ahead and potentially breach the formidable 4800 level. Such a breakthrough could pave the way for a continued ascent, with the lofty 5000 level emerging as a conceivable target. However, in the short term, intermittent pullbacks remain a distinct possibility, with the resilient 4700 level poised to serve as a bastion of support. This level, having already facilitated a rebound, is expected to garner significant attention from market participants.
Drop, or Consolidation?
- The prevailing question revolves around whether we are poised for a retracement or simply a period of consolidation to alleviate the exuberance from the recent bullish surge.
- The timing of these market movements coincides with the interlude between major holidays, which could potentially manifest as erratic price action.
- Consequently, traders are urged to exercise caution and carefully manage their position sizes in this environment characterized by diminished liquidity.
Nevertheless, it is unequivocally a bullish market, and even in the event of a substantial pullback, the strategy of seeking value remains prudent. The 4700 level stands as the initial line of defense, followed by the 4600 level, which is also poised to attract significant attention. Furthermore, the 4500 level looms beneath, notable for its psychological significance and as the point where the 50-day Exponential Moving Average has recently intersected. This confluence underscores the prevailing bullish sentiment and reinforces the notion that the market is primed for upward momentum. Consequently, the prospect of selling is not a viable consideration.
In the grander scheme of things, the S&P 500 is emblematic of a market poised for sustained upward movement. Any retracements or opportunities to enter at lower levels should be viewed as advantageous. As we navigate the intricate web of market dynamics, it remains apparent that this is a market that inexorably trends higher over the long term. Consequently, traders are encouraged to maintain a vigilant watch, capitalizing on any potential buying opportunities that may materialize.
Potential signal: I love the idea of buying this market on dips. However, we could be a bit noisy during the holiday season, so I would be very careful. I am a buyer at 4750, and again at 4700. I would keep the position sizing so that a 50 point drop will not cause you issues, as the stop loss would be 4625. I am targeting 4800 first, and then 4925.
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