Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.2733 and a take-profit at 1.2800.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2650.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 1.2690 and a take-profit at 1.2600.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2750.
The GBP/USD exchange rate is holding steady near its highest point since August as the US dollar retreat continued. The pair soared to a high of 1.1271 on Monday morning, a few pips below last week’s high of 1.2733. It has jumped by more than 5.50% from the lowest point in October.
Hawkish Jerome Powell's statement
The GBP/USD pair continued its bullish trend even after the hawkish statement by Jerome Powell. In a speech, he noted that the bank was achieving its goal of achieving a soft landing in the US.
There are signs that this landing is happening as inflation has dropped from last year’s high of 9.1% to 3.2%. Core inflation has retreated to 4.0%. At the same time, the economy has done well as it grew by 5.2% in the third quarter. The closely watched Atlanta Fed model estimates that the economy will grow by 1.2% in Q4.
Therefore, Powell warned that the central bank will likely continue hiking interest rates since inflation remains above its target of 2.0%. But traders are not buying it, with most of them expecting a rate cut in the first half of the year.
The closely watched futures market indicates that the first interest rate cut will come as early as March. Also, American equities have jumped to their highest point in months while bond yields have continued falling. Bitcoin soared to $40,000 for the first time in almost 19 months.
Meanwhile, there are signs that the British economy was doing better than expected. Inflation has dropped to about 4.7% while manufacturing activity returned to growth in November.
Like the Federal Reserve, economists believe that the Bank of England will start to cut rates in 2024.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The GBP/USD pair continued its bullish trend as the US dollar continued retreating. It jumped to a high of 1.2710, a few points above the first resistance of the Woodie pivot point. It is being supported by the 50-period and 25-period moving averages. Also, it is approaching the key resistance point at 1.2733, its highest point this week.
The GBP/USD pair is approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. Therefore, more upside will be confirmed if it moves above the resistance at 1.2733 since such a move will invalidate the double-top pattern. If it happens, the next price to watch will be at 1.2800.
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