Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2620.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2725.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.2670 and a take-profit at 1.2750.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2600.
The GBP/USD price retreated after another set of encouraging UK consumer and producer inflation data. The pair dropped to a low of 1.2630, a few pips below this month’s high of 1.2795.
UK inflation data
The GBP/USD price retreated after the latest UK inflation data. According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the headline CPI dropped by 0.2% in November, worse than the median estimate of 0.2%.
Inflation rose by 3.9% on a YoY basis, also lower than the estimated increase of 4.3%. The CPI has more than halved from its pandemic high of more than 10%. Meanwhile, the Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, dropped by 0.3% in November.
The CPI also dropped from 5.7% to 5.1%, also lower than the expected 5.5%. These numbers mean that the country’s inflation was falling at a faster pace than expected. There is also a likelihood that prices will continue falling as energy prices dip.
The implication is that the Bank of England (BoE) will likely start cutting rates in summer next year. Data in the futures market is estimating that the bank will slash rates by a whopping 140 basis points in 2024.
The BoE decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25% in its meeting and warned that inflation remained at an elevated level. Officials also pushed back against the rising hopes of interest rates cuts in 2024.
The GBP/USD pair also retreated after the strong US consumer confidence data. According to the Conference Bureau, the country’s consumer confidence rose from 101 in November to 110.7. That increase was much higher than the expected 103.8.
Consumer confidence is an important metric because of the role that consumer spending plays in the US. The next key data to watch will be the US GDP numbers and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing data.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The GBP/USD pair retreated sharply after the latest UK inflation data. As it dropped, it moved below the important support level at 1.2731, the highest swing on November 29th. The pair also moved slightly below the 50-period and 25-period moving averages.
Sterling is also sitting slightly above the lower side of the Andrews Pitchfork tool. It is also a few points above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the 23.6% retracement at 1.2622.
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