Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1125.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0900.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 1.1000 and a take-profit at 1.0950.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1125.
The EUR/USD exchange rate rose to its highest point since August 10th as hopes of more Federal Reserve rate cuts rose. The pair rose to a high of 1.1040 on Tuesday in an extremely low-volume environment as the Christmas holiday continues.
Fed rate cuts
The forex market is seeing weaker volume across the board as most countries remain on holiday. The key catalyst for the pair was last Friday’s encouraging inflation data from the United States.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) rose slightly in November. It rose by just 2.6%, lower than the median estimate of 2.8%. On a MoM basis, the gauge dropped by 0.1% in November.
Core PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy products, rose by 0.1% on a MoM basis and 3.2% from the same period in 2022. These numbers mean that inflation is heading in the right direction.
The challenge for the Fed is that consumers are still spending, which could push prices higher. Personal spending rose by 0.2% while the real personal consumption gauge rose by 0.3%.
Therefore, aggressive rate cuts could push inflation higher, a move that the Fed is trying to avoid. The Fed rate monitor tool gives a March rate cut odds at 75.6%. This explains why the US dollar index and US bond yields have pulled back in the past few months. The 10-year and 30-year yield have retreated to 3.90% and 4.05%, respectively.
Similarly, most analysts see the European Central Bank (ECB) starting to cut in the first half of 2024 now that the bloc’s inflation is falling while the economy is moving into a recession.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The EUR/USD pair has been in a slow uptrend as the US dollar sell-off continued. On the 4H chart, the pair has retested the first support of the pitchfork tool. It has also risen slightly above the double-top point at 1.100. The pair has remained slightly above the 50-period and 25-period moving averages and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Therefore, the outlook for the pair is bullish, with the next point to watch being at 1.1100, which is a psychological point. It will likely have no strong movements on Tuesday as volumes remain tight.
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