Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6510.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6650.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and add a take-profit at 0.6650.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6510.
The Australian dollar continued its recent sell-off as traders continued to reflect on this week’s RBA decision and GDP numbers. The AUD/USD also pulled back ahead of the upcoming US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data. It retreated to a low of 0.6560 on Thursday, lower than last Friday’s high of 0.6690.
US NFP data ahead
The AUD/USD exchange rate continued its downtrend after this week’s RBA decisio. In it, the bank decided to leave rates intact at 4.35% as it embraced a wait-and-see approach on inflation and economic growth.
Economists and traders believe that the bank is likely done raising interest rates for now. Future hikes will depend on the next inflation data, which will come out in January next year. The pair also dropped after the latest Australia GDP data.
According to the statistics agency, the economy expanded by 0.2% in Q3, missing the median estimate of 0.4%. This growth translated to a year-on-year expansion of 2.1%, higher than the expected 1.8%.
The Australian economic growth was helped by capital expenditure, which rose by 1.1%. Consumer spending rose by just 0.4% as they struggled because of high interest rates and the stubbornly high inflation rate.
The AUD/USD price retreated after ADP published a weak jobs report. The report revealed that the economy added 103k in November, missing the expected increase of 130k.
Therefore, the next important report to watch will be Friday’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) data. These are important numbers because they will help to determine the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Economists expect the data to reveal that the economy added 180k jobs after adding 150k in October. They also expect that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.9% while the average hourly earnings rose by 4.0%.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The Australian dollar has been under pressure in the past few days. This retreat happened after the pair formed a double-top pattern whose neckline was at 0.6570, the lowest point on November 30th. It has also moved below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level, the 50-period and 25-period moving averages, and the Ichimoku cloud.
The two lines of the MACD and the histogram have moved below the neutral point. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling ahead of the US NFP data. If this happens, the next point to watch will be at the 38.2% retracement at 0.6510.
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