Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6900.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6680.
- Timeline: 1-3 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 0.6750 and a take-profit at 0.6650.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6850.
The Australian dollar continued surging this week as hopes of more rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rose. The AUD/USD pair rose to a high of 0.6780, its highest point since July 27th. It has risen by more than 8% from its lowest point in November.
US GDP data ahead
The AUD/USD pair continued rising after the US published encouraging consumer confidence data. According to the Conference Board, the country’s consumer confidence rose from 101 in November to 110.7 in November. That increase was higher than the median estimate of 103.8.
Consumer confidence is an important metric because it is a good sign of consumer spending, the biggest part of the US GDP. The US also published strong existing home sales numbers. Sales rose from 3.79 million in October to 3.82 million in November, higher than the expected 3.78 million.
The next key data to watch will be the upcoming US GDP and manufacturing index data. The first estimate of the data showed that the economy expanded by 4.9% in Q3 while the second estimate revealed that it grew by 5.2%.
The statistics agency will also release the third-quarter PCE data. Economists see the headline PCE coming in at 2.8% while the core PCE dropped to 2.30%. PCE is Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.
The other key data to watch will be the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and consumer spending numbers. Economists expect the data to show that the index slipped by 3%.
While these numbers are important, their impact on the US dollar will be relatively muted since the Fed has already delivered its verdict. In it, the Fed left rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50% and pointed to cuts in 2024.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The Australian dollar continued rising as hopes of more RBA rate hikes rose. On the daily chart, the pair reached its highest point since July 27th. The pair is about to form a golden cross where the 50-day and 200-day moving averages cross each other.
Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved close to the overbought point of 70. The MACD indicator continued rising. Therefore, the outlook for the pair is bullish, with the next point to watch being at 0.6900, its highest point on July 13th and June 19th.
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