- The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market (US Oil) had a back-and-forth month during October, and I suspect we probably have more of the same ahead.
- After all, there are a lot of questions about the Middle East war, and whether or not it will expand. If Iran were to somehow be sucked into the conflict, that will almost certainly drive the price of oil higher.
- That being said, OPEC has already cut back some of the production, leading to the most recent rally. As we are closing the month of October, we are hanging about the 50-We EMA, a technical indicator that a lot of people pay attention to.
If we turn around and break above the $85 level, then it’s likely that we could go look into the $90 level, possibly even back to the highs of the last several weeks. Ultimately, the market is likely to see the $100 level as a target, but it would probably take some type of fundamental event to make that happen. All things being equal, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility based on the latest headline coming across the newswires, so therefore it’s going to be difficult to trade this market. That being said, I think it’s probably easier to be a buyer than a seller, because of the lack of supply, and the fact that the physical market itself is rather tight also.
The US dollar could strengthen and that could cause some issues for pricing, but at the end of the day it’s also likely that inflation will continue to be a major issue, and it is probably worth noting that the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil chart has been forming a bit of a bullish flag lately, and therefore we could get a move higher. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 50-Week EMA on a weekly close, then we could have a potential move down to the 200-Week EMA, which is closer to the $75 level. That would be a bit surprising considering all of the tensions and the lack of supply, but you can make an argument that a lack of demand might creep into the market as well.
All things being equal, I think that the crude oil market is trying to carve out some type of range right now, and therefore I think the market is likely to continue to see a lot of back and forth in this general vicinity, and I would not be surprised at all that the month of November into being volatile, but ultimately somewhat flat.
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