After touching a high of nearly 4.08550 last Friday the USD/ILS has incrementally lowered in value. Adverse risk sentiment certainly played a role in the climb of the USD/ILS in the wake of the war starting between Israel and Hamas on the 7th of October. Monday’s high for the USD/ILS on the 9th of October was near the 3.98120 ratio as Forex opened following that chaotic weekend.
Intriguingly, this morning’s price action of the USD/ILS finds the currency pair near the 3.98100 vicinity. Not only have risk adverse conditions become slightly more tranquil regarding the USD/ILS, but yesterday’s U.S Federal Reserve FOMC Statement and the lack of another interest rate hike by the U.S central bank helped the currency pair lower. Importantly the USD/ILS has mirrored other major currency pairs after the Fed made no changes to the Federal Funds Rate.
Before and After as Technical Indicators for the USD/ILS and Speculation
Before the war between Israel and Hamas the USD/ILS was trading near a rather stubborn high of 3.87000 which it began to flirt with in the second week of September, the end of September and then started to trade slightly above on the 4th of October. In consideration of the current conditions in Israel risk adverse sentiment regarding the USD/ILS certainly still exists, and will likely keep support levels rather durable.
The question for speculators is how much of an influence has the U.S Federal Reserve’s hawkish interest rate policy factored into the value of the USD/ILS, and if a perceived change to a potentially dovish stance will affect the currency pair. In the middle of July the USD/ILS was trading near the 3.57000 level when momentum shifted in the broad Forex market and the USD began to gain strength against most major currencies it was paired against including the Israeli Shekel. In other words some financial institutions may believe the USD/ILS is still overbought.
4.00000 Level Resistance for the USD/ILS and Looking for Lower Values in the Near-Term
Speculators of the USD/ILS might be tempted to look at the 4.00000 level of the currency pair as potential resistance and a place to launch selling positions if challenged. However, traders must take into consideration that risk-adverse conditions continue to exist in Israel and there is a potential for developing news that could pose negative reactions – which means buying of the USD/ILS as a safe haven move could emerge. Yet, there is also the possibility that events – though loud – remain somewhat tranquil for financial institutions involved with the USD/ILS and the currency pair reflects broad forex market via USD-centric views.
- Tomorrow’s U.S. jobs numbers will factor into the USD/ILS.
- Weaker than anticipated results from the Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings could spark some selling of the USD/ILS.
- But it should be remembered most Israeli banks close early on Friday, so if there is a weaker result than expected, volatility could also be seen on early Monday next week.
USD/ILS Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 4.0090
Current Support: 3.97920
High Target: 4.03150
Low Target: 3.92400
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