- The NASDAQ 100 has had a tough October, as it is currently testing the 50-Week you may indicator.
- The market is very likely to continue to be noisy, especially as the 3rd quarter results have been somewhat mixed.
- Further telling is the fact that some of the bigger stocks have responded somewhat poorly to even reasonable earnings announcements.
Obviously, we have a major source to headwinds out there in the form of interest rates, and of course geopolitical problems. As long as the war in Gaza is going to continue, it’s likely that the markets will be somewhat jittery. That being said, the market has behaved fairly well considering everything that’s going on, so at this point I think there will still be traders out there willing to try to pick the market up. Remember, the NASDAQ 100 is influenced by just a handful of stocks, more than anything else, and therefore it’s likely that we will continue to see the market move right along with Apple, Tesla, and the usual suspects.
Underneath, we have the 13,750 level offering support, and that will be an area that needs to be held. If we were to break down below there, it’s possible that the market could drop down to the 13,000 level. On the other hand, if we can turn around and recapture the 14,500 level, it’s possible that the NASDAQ 100 will do everything it can to reach the top of the channel that it has been trading in, which is essentially going to be found just below the 15,250 level. I anticipate that the month of November will probably be very noisy, but we are more likely than not to see an attempt at a rally, followed by selling pressure. That being said, if the market were to break above the 15,250 level, then the market is likely to continue to go higher, perhaps reaching the 16,500 level. That was an area where we had seen a lot of selling pressure previously and was the most recent swing high.
When I look at this chart, it is very interesting due to the fact that while we are in a descending channel, you can still make an argument that perhaps we are trying to build a bit of a bullish flag. That being said, we need to break out to the upside rather soon to kick that pattern off, so November is very likely to be noisy to say the least.
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