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NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Sits Just Above the 200-Day EMA

At this point, the 200-Day EMA is the last messages of support, and if we were to finally break down through it, we would not only break a major technical barrier in that sense, but a major technical barrier due to the fact that we are at the bottom of the previously mentioned channel.

  • The NASDAQ 100 has gone back and forth during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to hang around the 200-Day EMA.
  • The market continues to be very noisy, and therefore it’s likely that we continue to see a lot of volatility based on the technical pattern.
  • We are at the bottom of an overall down-trending channel, and therefore think you get a situation where the market is trying to find its footing.

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    You should also keep in mind that the market is highly sensitive to the fact that we are in the midst of earnings season, so therefore it’s likely that we could continue to see a lot of volatility based on that alone. Furthermore, the market is going to be looking at the geopolitical situation, which of course is doing nothing good for stocks. At this point, the 200-Day EMA is the last messages of support, and if we were to finally break down through it, we would not only break a major technical barrier in that sense, but a major technical barrier due to the fact that we are at the bottom of the previously mentioned channel.

    Volatility Ahead

    • I think at this point, the market is likely to continue seeing a lot of volatility and I would not be surprised at all to see a short-term bounce.
    • However, the 14,500 level will probably continue to be very resistive, as it was previous support.
    • In other words, I think the most likely of trajectories is going to be a short-term bounce that gets faded to heat yet again.

    The day on Wednesday could be very volatile due to the fact that we have the Federal Reserve meeting and announcement. While the market does not expect an interest rate hike, the reality is that the statement and conference will be parsed quite closely. There is a divergence between traders who believe that another interest rate hike is coming in December, and those that think we have seen our last one. Regardless of what happens, it’s very likely that we continue to see noise overall. In a very volatile environment, typically stocks don’t do well. Remember, the NASDAQ is driven by a handful of stocks more than anything else, see need to pay attention to all the usual mega cap stocks in the index.

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    Christopher Lewis
    About Christopher Lewis

    Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.

     

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