Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2010.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2230.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.2150 and a take-profit at 1.2230.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2075.
The GBP/USD exchange rate was flat after the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The pair was hovering at 1.2122 where it has been this week. It has dropped by over 7.8% from the highest point this year.
Bank of England decision ahead
The GBP/USD pair reacted mildly to American economic data. According to ISM, the American manufacturing PMI dropped from 49 in September to 46.7 in October, lower than the median estimate of 49.0.
Another report by ADP revealed that the nonfarm employment change rose by 113k in October after adding over 89k in the previous month. This increase was lower than the expected 150k.
Meanwhile, the number of job vacancies in the US bounced back in September. The country has over 9.55 million vacancies, up from the previous month’s 9.49 million. These numbers came two days ahead of the upcoming US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data.
The biggest event during the American session was the Federal Reserve decision. As was widely expected, the bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%.
The Fed continued warning that inflation remains stubbornly high while the economy was growing at a strong pace. It warned that the tighter monetary conditions were having an impact on the economy.
Therefore, the Fed will likely maintain rates at the current level for a while as it observes the state of inflation. The bank will also focus on the state of the labor market.
The next important GBP/USD news will come on Thursday when the Bank of England (BoE) will publish its decision. Like the Fed, economists expect that the bank will also leave rates unchanged at 5.25%.
Unlike in the US, the British economy is not doing well. Inflation remains stubbornly high while the GDP growth has been quite sluggish.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The GBP/USD exchange rate moved sideways after the FOMC decision. On the 4H chart, it remains below the Woodie pivot point at 1.2150. The pair moved slightly below the 25-period and 50-period moving averages.
It also retested the lower side of the ascending trendline which is part of the triangle pattern. The MACD has been flat at the neutral level. Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range and then make a bearish breakout. If this happens, the next key level to watch will be the first Woodie support at 1.2000.
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